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SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS Analysis

Issued at 4:00pm WST
on Monday the 21st of May 2012 RECENT EVENTS: NORTHERN HALF: Mostly sunny. SOUTHERN HALF: Isolated south coastal showers over the SW Land Division.
SYNOPTIC SITUATION AND FORECAST EXPLANATION:
A weak cold front brushed the south coast early this morning with a weak ridge over southern parts of the state. Isolated coastal showers between Bremer Bay and Israelite Bay in the onshore airstream.
On Tuesday the high pressure ridge will strengthen to the southwest of the state with another cold front moving along the south coast late in the day. Isolated showers over the South Coastal and southern half of the South East Coastal districts, extending into southern parts of the Southwest district during the afternoon and evening and along the Eucla coast late evening.
PROGNOSIS
Prognosis
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS:

On Wednesday, the cold front will lie over far southeastern parts of the state in the early morning with isolated showers over the South Coastal, South East Coastal, adjacent Great Southern, adjacent Goldfields and Eucla at first. Showers expected to contract east and clear the SW Land Division, Goldfields and inland western Eucla during the morning but extend into the far southern Interior for a period during the day. A middle level disturbance moving over far southeastern parts of the state may also bring isolated thunderstorms over the far east of the South East Coastal district and southern Eucla, contracting east and clearing during the day. Fresh and gusty E/SE winds over northern parts of the state as a high pressure system begins to move south of the state in the wake of the cold front. By Thursday, the high pressure system will lie near the south coast with isolated showers over far eastern parts of the South East Coastal district and Eucla in the onshore airflow contracting to coastal parts by the early afternoon. Fresh and gusty E/SE winds over northern parts. The high pressure system will continue to be situated near the south coast on Friday with fresh and gusty E/SE winds continuing over northern parts. Isolated showers over the southern Eucla in the onshore airflow, contracting to coastal parts during the morning.
Yanchep to Mandurah and Offshore to Rottnest Island
Issued at 4:30 pm WST on Monday 21 May 2012
Valid until midnight Thursday

Please Be Aware
Wind gusts can be 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum
wave may be up to twice the height.

Warnings
Nil

Synoptic Situation
A high pressure ridge is situated over the southern parts of the State.

Forecasts:
Monday until midnight: S/SE winds 15/20 knots tending S/SW 10/15 knots inshore.
Seas 1.0m to 1.5m. Swell to 1.5m rising to 2.0m in the evening.
Swell at Cottesloe: to 0.7m
Winds on Melville Water: Similar.

Tuesday: S/SE winds 10/15 knots increasing to 15/20 knots late morning. Seas
1.5m to 2.0m. Swell to 2.0m.
Swell at Cottesloe: to 0.7m.
Winds on Melville Water: Similar though 5 knots lighter during the afternoon and
evening.

Wednesday: E'ly winds 18/23 knots. Seas 1.0m to 1.5m. Swell 2.0m to 2.5m.
Thursday: E/NE winds 13/18 knots becoming variable to 10 knots in the afternoon.

Current Swell Observations:
Rottnest Waverider Buoy: 1.3m.
Cottesloe Waverider Buoy: 0.5m.

Current swell height information is supplied by the Department of Transport and
is current only at the time of issue of this forecast

The next routine forecast will be issued at 11:30 pm WST Monday.

Kalbarri to Jurien Bay: (Including GERALDTON)
Strong Wind Warning.
Monday until midnight: S/SW winds 13/18 knots tending S/SE 15/20 knots early
evening. Seas 1.0m to 1.5m. Swell 1.5m to 2.0m.
Tuesday: S/SE winds 15/20 knots, reaching 20/30 knots late afternoon. Seas 1.5m
to 2.5m. Swell to 2.0m.
Wednesday: E/SE winds 18/23 knots easing to 13/18 knots late morning and
increasing to 20/30 knots late afternoon. Seas 1.0m to 2.0m. Swell 2.0m to 2.5m.
Thursday: E/SE winds 20/30 knots easing to E/NE 18/23 knots during the morning
and 13/18 knots during the afternoon.

Jurien Bay to Mandurah: (Including LANCELIN & CERVANTES)
Monday until midnight: S/SE winds 15/20 knots tending S/SW 10/15 knots inshore.
Seas 1.0m to 1.5m. Swell 1.5m rising to 2.5m in the afternoon.
Tuesday: S/SE winds 15/20 knots reaching 20/25 knots north of Lancelin during
the afternoon. Seas 1.5m to 2.0m. Swell to 2.0m.
Wednesday: E'ly winds 18/23 knots. Seas 1.0m to 1.5m. Swell 2.0m to 2.5m.
Thursday: E/NE winds 13/18 knots becoming variable to 10 knots in the afternoon.

Mandurah to Cape Leeuwin: (Including MARGARET RIVER)
Monday until midnight: S/SE wind 10/15 knots. Seas to 1.0m. Swell to 3.0m.
Tuesday: SW/SE winds 8/13 knots tending S/SE 15/20 knots in the afternoon. Seas
to 1.5m. Swell to 2.0m.
Wednesday: E/SE winds 15/20 knots easing to 10/15 knots during the morning. Seas
1.0m to 1.5m. Swell 2.5m to 3.0m.
Thursday: E/NE winds 10/15 knots becoming NE/NW 5/10 knots late afternoon.

Cape Leeuwin to Bremer Bay: (Including ALBANY)
Monday until midnight: W/SW winds 10/15 knots. Seas to 1.0m. Swell 2.5m to 3.0m.
Tuesday: W/SW winds 10/15 knots tending W/NW 8/13 knots inshore until after
sunrise. Winds increasing to W/SW 15/20 knots during the morning and tending
S/SE 18/23 knots late afternoon. Seas 1.5m to 2.5m. Swell 2.5m to 3.0m.
Wednesday: S/SE winds 13/18 knots easing to SE/NE 8/13 knots during the morning.
Seas to 1.5m. Swell to 4.0m.
Thursday: N/NE winds 8/13 knots becoming variable to 10 knots in the afternoon.

Bremer Bay to Israelite Bay: (Including ESPERANCE)
Strong Wind Warning.
Monday until midnight: SW'ly winds 10/15 knots. Seas to 1.0m. Swell 1.5m to
2.0m.
Tuesday: W/SW winds 10/15 knots tending W/NW 8/13 knots inshore until after
sunrise. Winds tending SW'ly 15/20 knots during the morning and increasing to
S/SW 20/30 knots in the evening. Seas 1.5m to 2.5m. Swell 2.5m to 3.0m.
Wednesday: S'ly winds 15/20 knots easing to 10/15 knots from the west late
morning and early afternoon. Seas 1.0m to 1.5m. Swell to 4.0m.
Thursday: Variable winds to 10 knots.

Israelite Bay to SA Border:
Strong Wind Warning west of Caiguna.
Monday until midnight: SW'ly winds 8/13 knots. Seas to 0.5m. Swell 1.5m to 2.0m.
Tuesday: NW/SW winds 8/13 knots, tending S/SW 15/20 in the afternoon and
reaching 20/30 knots west of Caiguna in the evening. Seas 1.5m to 2.5m. Swell
2.5m to 3.0m.
Wednesday: S/SW winds 20/30 knots. Seas 2.0m to 2.5m. Swell 3.5m to 4.0m.
Thursday: S'ly winds 18/23 knots.



Forecast for the Perth Metro Area
Issued at 4:30 pm WST on Monday 21 May 2012

Warning summary
Nil

Forecast for Monday    evening
Clear. Light to moderate S/SW winds tending SE during the evening.

Precis:      Sunny.                             

Forecast for Tuesday  
Mostly sunny. Light to moderate SE winds tending moderate S/SW for a period in
the afternoon.

Precis:      Mostly sunny.                      
City:        Min 8      Max 22 
Mandurah:    Min 12     Max 21 

UV Alert:    11:10 am to 1:20 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]  
Fire Danger: Coastal Plain: NOT RATED   
             Hills:         NOT RATED   

Wednesday    Sunny.                                 Min 9      Max 21
Thursday     Sunny.                                 Min 8      Max 20
Friday       Sunny.                                 Min 7      Max 20
Saturday     Sunny.                                 Min 7      Max 21
Sunday       Sunny.                                 Min 8      Max 22
Monday       Sunny.                                 Min 8      Max 23

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:50 am WST Tuesday.

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Forecasts provided by the BoM and are (C) Copyright Commonwealth of Australia, Bureau of Meteorology





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